Category Archives: Uncategorized

2016 Global Temperature Update to Hansen’s 1981 Projection

It is always useful to check past predictions against eventual observations. Below is the NASA GISTEMP observed global temperature (updated through 2016) overlain on top of various projections of CO2-induced warming from calculations published in 1981 (Hansen et al. 1981). 2015 and … Continue reading

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2016 update of modeled vs. observed global temperature

NASA released their 2016 global mean surface temperature data today. With this datapoint in, observations are now above the average climate model value for this point in time (using 1986-2005 as the baseline): This graphic uses the RCP 4.5 emissions … Continue reading

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What do historical temperature records tell us about natural variability in global temperature?

I have published an article, written for a general audience, summarizing the results of our 2015 Scientific Reports study.

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Cloud feedback necessary for a basin-scale AMO

We have recently published a study in Geophysical Research Letters titled “The necessity of cloud feedback for a basin-scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation“. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) – a basin-scale coherent oscillation of sea surface temperatures over the North Atlantic – is … Continue reading

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2015 Global Temperature vs. Models

2015 was the warmest year in the instrumental record (dating back to the mid/late 19th century) in all the major surface temperature datasets including NASA’s GISTEMP: However, 2015 still falls below the CMIP5 climate model mean value (left panel below). The … Continue reading

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AGU Poster: Unforced Surface Air Temperature Anomalies and their Opposite Relationship with the TOA Energy Imbalance at Local and Global Scales

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Response to Robert Tracinski’s article: “What It Would Take to Prove Global Warming”

Libertarian writer Robert Tracinski’s recently wrote an article called “What It Would Take to Prove Global Warming” in which he challenged mainstream climate science on a number of issues. I was asked by a few people to give my thoughts … Continue reading

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Climate Model Primer

1) What is a climate model? In order to correctly interpret climate model output it is important to first understand what a computer climate model is. Climate models are software that simulate the whole earth system by using our knowledge … Continue reading

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Global Warming and unforced variability: Clarifications on our recent study

This post appeared at Real Climate We recently published a study in Scientific Reports titled “Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise”. Our study seemed to generated a lot of interest and we … Continue reading

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Research highlighted in the media

Our Paper, “Regions of significant influence on unforced global mean surface air temperature variability in climate models” has been highlighted by a number of media outlets: sciencedaily carbonbrief scienceworldreport duke reportingclimatescience phys spacedaily green-energy-news rdmag astrobiologymagazie climatewire Neue Zuercher Zeitung (Swiss … Continue reading

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