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In Prep:

  • Brown P. T., J. Moreno-Cruz, K. Caldeira (20XX) When will climate change mitigation begin to produce global net economic benefits?. In Prep.

  • Brown P. T., J. Moreno-Cruz, H. Saunders, Z. Hausfather, S. J. Davis, F. Tong, K. Caldeira (20XX) Net economic impact of UN global warming mitigation targets. In Prep.

  • Brown, P. T., M. Evans, A. Mahesh, H. Gupta, K. Caldeira (20XX) Skillful empirical prediction of high-impact temperature deviations. In Prep.

  • Brown, P. T., K. Caldeira (20XX) Empirical prediction of global temperature variability. In Prep.


  • Brown, P. T., W. Li, J. H. Jiang, H. Su (2016) Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans. Geophysical Research Lettersdoi:10.1002/2016GL071442.
  • Brown, P. T. (2016) What do historical temperature records tell us about natural variability in global temperature?, Climanosco, 24 Aug. 2016.
    • placed 2nd overall in the Climanosco launch challenge)
  • Brown, P.T., W. Li, E.C. Cordero, S.A. Mauget (2015) Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. Scientific Reportsdoi:10.1038/srep09957.
  • Brown, P.T., W. Li, S. P. Xie (2015) Regions of Significant Influence on Unforced Global Mean Surface Temperature Variability in Climate Models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheresdoi: 10.1002/2014JD022576.
  • Brown, P.T., E.C. Cordero, S.A. Mauget (2012) Reproduction of 20th Century Intradecadal to Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability in Radiatively Forced Coupled Climate Models. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheresdoi:10.1029/2011JD016864.
  • Mauget S.A., E.C. Cordero, P.T. Brown (2011) Evaluating Modeled Intra- to Multidecadal Climate Variability Using Running Mann-Whitney Z Statistics. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00211.1.