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- 2016 Update to our ’empirical unforced noise’ analysis
- Do ‘propagation of error’ calculations invalidate climate model projections of global warming?
- 2016 Global Temperature Update to Hansen’s 1981 Projection
- 2016 update of modeled vs. observed global temperature
- Why do climate models disagree on the size of global temperature variability?
Monthly Archives: January 2016
We have new published research that has implications for why global mean surface air temperature (GMT) is stable in the absence of external radiative forcings. One of the central differences between weather prediction and climate projection is that the former is considered … Continue reading
This is an update to our 2015 Scientific Reports paper: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. The paper used a novel statistical estimate of unforced variability that was derived from reconstructed and instrumental surface … Continue reading
2015 was the warmest year in the instrumental record (dating back to the mid/late 19th century) in all the major surface temperature datasets including NASA’s GISTEMP: However, 2015 still falls below the CMIP5 climate model mean value (left panel below). The … Continue reading
It is well established that human-caused increases in greenhouse gasses are working to increase the average surface temperature of the planet on long timescales1. This fact, however, means very little in terms of the consequences that climate change might have … Continue reading