Monthly Archives: January 2016

The stability of unforced global temperature – Technical Discussion

Posted on January 31, 2016 by ptbrown31

We have new published research that has implications for why global mean surface air temperature (GMT) is stable in the absence of external radiative forcings. One of the central differences between weather prediction and climate projection is that the former is considered … Continue reading →

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2015 Record Warmth: Update to Our Recent Analysis

Posted on January 25, 2016 by ptbrown31

This is an update to our 2015 Scientific Reports paper: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. The paper used a novel statistical estimate of unforced variability that was derived from reconstructed and instrumental surface … Continue reading →

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2015 Global Temperature vs. Models

Posted on January 20, 2016 by ptbrown31

2015 was the warmest year in the instrumental record (dating back to the mid/late 19th century) in all the major surface temperature datasets including NASA’s GISTEMP: However, 2015 still falls below the CMIP5 climate model mean value (left panel below). The … Continue reading →

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Heat waves: How much can be blamed on global warming depends on how you ask the question.

Posted on January 5, 2016 by ptbrown31

The text below is an extended version of a peer-reviewed article that appeared in Physics Today: Brown, P. T. (2016) Reporting on global warming: A study in headlines, Physics Today, doi:10.1063/PT.3.3310 It is well established that human-caused increases in greenhouse … Continue reading →

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