Category Archives: Uncategorized

The effect of population growth on climate change impacts

Global human population is currently at approximately 7.5 billion people and increasing by about 1.1% per year. However, the rate of growth of the population growth rate itself is decreasing so world population is expected to level off somewhere near … Continue reading

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Change in temperature variability with warming

We have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change on potential changes in natural unforced variability of global mean surface air temperature (GMST) under global warming. Paper News and Views piece Duke press release Unforced GMST variability is of … Continue reading

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The fact illusion: Objective truth is elusive in (climate) science

Summary Science is the best system humans have ever created to address questions about how the world works and no other paradigm is better at moving us towards objective truth. However, contrary to a popular notion, science can rarely be … Continue reading

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Climate Science for People Really in a Hurry 2 – Economics

This is a video summary of the findings in Burke et al., 2015 regarding the relationship between temperature and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and how this relationship affects our projections of how global warming will impact the economy Video Series: Climate … Continue reading

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Defending science at the People’s Climate March

I accepted an invitation to speak at the San Jose People’s Climate March on April 29th, 2017 and I have reproduced what I said below. *Note that I do not necessarily endorse the People’s Climate March policy platform and I … Continue reading

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2016 Update to our ’empirical unforced noise’ analysis

This is an update to our 2015 Scientific Reports paper: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. The paper used a novel statistical estimate of unforced variability that was derived from reconstructed and instrumental surface … Continue reading

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Do ‘propagation of error’ calculations invalidate climate model projections of global warming?

My thoughts on claims made by Dr. Patrick Frank (SLAC) on the validity of climate model projections of global warming:  

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2016 Global Temperature Update to Hansen’s 1981 Projection

It is always useful to check past predictions against eventual observations. Below is the NASA GISTEMP observed global temperature (updated through 2016) overlain on top of various projections of CO2-induced warming from calculations published in 1981 (Hansen et al. 1981). 2015 and … Continue reading

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2016 update of modeled vs. observed global temperature

NASA released their 2016 global mean surface temperature data today. With this datapoint in, observations are now above the average climate model value for this point in time (using 1986-2005 as the baseline): This graphic uses the RCP 4.5 emissions … Continue reading

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What do historical temperature records tell us about natural variability in global temperature?

I have published an article, written for a general audience, summarizing the results of our 2015 Scientific Reports study.

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