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- 2016 Update to our ’empirical unforced noise’ analysis
- Do ‘propagation of error’ calculations invalidate climate model projections of global warming?
- 2016 Global Temperature Update to Hansen’s 1981 Projection
- 2016 update of modeled vs. observed global temperature
- Why do climate models disagree on the size of global temperature variability?
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This is an update to our 2015 Scientific Reports paper: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. The paper used a novel statistical estimate of unforced variability that was derived from reconstructed and instrumental surface … Continue reading
My thoughts on claims made by Dr. Patrick Frank (SLAC) on the validity of climate model projections of global warming:
It is always useful to check past predictions against eventual observations. Below is the NASA GISTEMP observed global temperature (updated through 2016) overlain on top of various projections of CO2-induced warming from calculations published in 1981 (Hansen et al. 1981). 2015 and … Continue reading
NASA released their 2016 global mean surface temperature data today. With this datapoint in, observations are now above the average climate model value for this point in time (using 1986-2005 as the baseline): This graphic uses the RCP 4.5 emissions … Continue reading
I have published an article, written for a general audience, summarizing the results of our 2015 Scientific Reports study.
We have recently published a study in Geophysical Research Letters titled “The necessity of cloud feedback for a basin-scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation“. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) – a basin-scale coherent oscillation of sea surface temperatures over the North Atlantic – is … Continue reading
2015 was the warmest year in the instrumental record (dating back to the mid/late 19th century) in all the major surface temperature datasets including NASA’s GISTEMP: However, 2015 still falls below the CMIP5 climate model mean value (left panel below). The … Continue reading
AGU Poster: Unforced Surface Air Temperature Anomalies and their Opposite Relationship with the TOA Energy Imbalance at Local and Global Scales
Libertarian writer Robert Tracinski’s recently wrote an article called “What It Would Take to Prove Global Warming” in which he challenged mainstream climate science on a number of issues. I was asked by a few people to give my thoughts … Continue reading