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Category Archives: Climate Change
Overestimating the Human Influence on the Economic Costs of Extreme Weather Events
Estimating the human influence on extreme weather events and their economic costs is relevant to many policy discussions around climate change including those that concern the social cost of carbon. There are many different ways to estimate the economic costs … Continue reading
Revisiting a Claim of Reduced Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty
Nature has published a Brief Communications Arising between us (Patrick Brown, Martin Stolpe, and Ken Caldeira) and Peter Cox, Femke Nijsse, Mark Williamson and Chris Huntingford; which is in regards to their paper published earlier this year titled “Emergent constraint on … Continue reading
Posted in Climate Change
2 Comments
Signal, Noise and Global Warming’s Influence on Weather
Human-caused climate change from increasing greenhouse gasses is expected to influence many weather phenomena including extreme events. However, there is not yet a detectable long-term change in many of these extreme events, as is recently emphasized by Roger Pielke Jr. in … Continue reading
Posted in Climate Change
6 Comments
Contemporary Global Warming placed in geological context
Below is a rough comparison of contemporary Global Warming and estimates of past temperature change. This is a visualization in the vein of this plot on Wikipedia. Uncertainties increase substantially as estimates go back further in time. Time resolution also … Continue reading
Posted in Climate Change
7 Comments
Fundamental economics and the costs and benefits of addressing climate change
This post is a high-level summary of the central ideas underlying the evaluation of the economic costs and benefits of addressing climate change. One of the primary goals here is to explore, at a fundamental level, what is actually meant … Continue reading
Posted in Climate Change
1 Comment
Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order to Narrow Uncertainty in Projected Global Warming
Below is a presentation I gave on our recent research published in Nature titled “Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget”. This was for the Stanford University Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Systems Colloquium (EE380). Thus, it is intended for … Continue reading
Posted in Climate Change
1 Comment
AGU Talk on potential changes in temperature variability with warming
Below is my talk from the 2017 AGU fall meeting. This talk is on a paper we published in Nature Climate Change about potential changes in natural unforced variability of global mean surface air temperature (GMST) under global warming. Background Unforced … Continue reading
Posted in Climate Change
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Greater future global warming (still) inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget
We recently published a paper in Nature in which we leveraged observations of the Earth’s radiative energy budget to statistically constrain 21st-century climate model projections of global warming. We found that observations of the Earth’s energy budget allow us to infer … Continue reading
Posted in Climate Change
13 Comments
Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget
More-severe climate model predictions could be the most accurate. Continue reading
Posted in Climate Change
46 Comments
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions helps the economy
Potential solutions to climate change are often framed as a tradeoff between reducing our impact on the environment and harming the economy. More specifically, it is thought that we can reduce our climate-change-related impact by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases … Continue reading
Posted in Climate Change, Uncategorized
8 Comments
Patrick T. Brown, PhD 