Category Archives: Climate Change

Why do climate models disagree on the size of global temperature variability?

We have published a new paper titled “Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans“. Here is a brief summary: Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) is … Continue reading

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Video Summary of my PhD Dissertation

 

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The stability of unforced global temperature – In plain english

We have new published research that shows in detail why the earth’s temperature remains stable when it is not pushed by outside forcings. Below is a summary in plain english. For a more technical discussion see here. The study is all about what … Continue reading

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The stability of unforced global temperature – Technical Discussion

We have new published research that has implications for why global mean surface air temperature (GMT) is stable in the absence of external radiative forcings. One of the central differences between weather prediction and climate projection is that the former is considered … Continue reading

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2015 Record Warmth: Update to Our Recent Analysis

This is an update to our 2015 Scientific Reports paper: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. The paper used a novel statistical estimate of unforced variability that was derived from reconstructed and instrumental surface … Continue reading

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Heat waves: How much can be blamed on global warming depends on how you ask the question.

It is well established that human-caused increases in greenhouse gasses are working to increase the average surface temperature of the planet on long timescales1. This fact, however, means very little in terms of the consequences that climate change might have … Continue reading

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Top-of-atmosphere contribution to unforced variability in global temperature

(The following was originally posted at Climate Lab Book) As the attention received by the ‘global warming hiatus’ demonstrates, global mean surface temperature (T) variability on decadal timescales is of great interest to both the general public and to scientists. … Continue reading

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Making a case vs. analyzing data in the climate change debate

Nate Silver recently re-launched a greatly expanded version of his fivethirtyeight blog to much fanfare. The site’s goal is to tackle a variety of questions with hard data analysis in an effort to elucidate truths that are often obscured by … Continue reading

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Unforced Variability and the Global Warming Slow Down

Introduction Some have claimed that despite a continual increase in global atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the global average temperature has not increased in 16 years. This logic is used to advocate the idea that increases in greenhouse gasses do not cause … Continue reading

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Response to David Evans Opinion Piece on Climate Science

This is a point-by-point response to a David Evans op-ed that I wrote a couple years ago. It addresses some common misconceptions held by the public regarding climate science. The debate about global warming has reached ridiculous proportions and is full of … Continue reading

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