Category Archives: Climate Change

Credibility through honesty about uncertainty

An argument that I often encounter is that uncertainties in climate science shouldn’t be publicly emphasized since that will make it harder to inspire action on proposed climate policies. It is thought that publicly highlighting a lack of knowledge/understanding on … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

Modeled vs. observed global temperature: with and without ‘makeup’

Global average surface air temperature is one of the most well-recognized metrics of contemporary climate change – hence the term ‘global warming’. One reason for this is that many impacts of climate change are expected to be proportional to the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Change | 1 Comment

Climate Science for People Really in a Hurry

Posted in Climate Change | 2 Comments

Why do climate models disagree on the size of global temperature variability?

We have published a new paper titled “Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans“. Here is a brief summary: Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) is … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Change | 6 Comments

Video Summary of my PhD Dissertation

 

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

The stability of unforced global temperature – In plain english

We have new published research that shows in detail why the earth’s temperature remains stable when it is not pushed by outside forcings. Below is a summary in plain english. For a more technical discussion see here. The study is all about what … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

The stability of unforced global temperature – Technical Discussion

We have new published research that has implications for why global mean surface air temperature (GMT) is stable in the absence of external radiative forcings. One of the central differences between weather prediction and climate projection is that the former is considered … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Change | 1 Comment

2015 Record Warmth: Update to Our Recent Analysis

This is an update to our 2015 Scientific Reports paper: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. The paper used a novel statistical estimate of unforced variability that was derived from reconstructed and instrumental surface … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

Heat waves: How much can be blamed on global warming depends on how you ask the question.

The text below is an extended version of a peer-reviewed article that appeared in Physics Today: Brown, P. T. (2016) Reporting on global warming: A study in headlines, Physics Today, doi:10.1063/PT.3.3310 It is well established that human-caused increases in greenhouse … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

Top-of-atmosphere contribution to unforced variability in global temperature

(The following was originally posted at Climate Lab Book) As the attention received by the ‘global warming hiatus’ demonstrates, global mean surface temperature (T) variability on decadal timescales is of great interest to both the general public and to scientists. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment