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- Defending science at the People’s Climate March
- Climate Science for People Really in a Hurry
- 2016 Update to our ’empirical unforced noise’ analysis
- Do ‘propagation of error’ calculations invalidate climate model projections of global warming?
- 2016 Global Temperature Update to Hansen’s 1981 Projection
Author Archives: ptbrown31
I accepted an invitation to speak at the San Jose People’s Climate March on April 29th, 2017 and I have reproduced what I said below. *Note that I do not necessarily endorse the People’s Climate March policy platform and I … Continue reading
This is an update to our 2015 Scientific Reports paper: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. The paper used a novel statistical estimate of unforced variability that was derived from reconstructed and instrumental surface … Continue reading
My thoughts on claims made by Dr. Patrick Frank (SLAC) on the validity of climate model projections of global warming:
It is always useful to check past predictions against eventual observations. Below is the NASA GISTEMP observed global temperature (updated through 2016) overlain on top of various projections of CO2-induced warming from calculations published in 1981 (Hansen et al. 1981). 2015 and … Continue reading
NASA released their 2016 global mean surface temperature data today. With this datapoint in, observations are now above the average climate model value for this point in time (using 1986-2005 as the baseline): This graphic uses the RCP 4.5 emissions … Continue reading
We have published a new paper titled “Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans“. Here is a brief summary: Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) is … Continue reading
I have published an article, written for a general audience, summarizing the results of our 2015 Scientific Reports study.
We have recently published a study in Geophysical Research Letters titled “The necessity of cloud feedback for a basin-scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation“. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) – a basin-scale coherent oscillation of sea surface temperatures over the North Atlantic – is … Continue reading