Author Archives: ptbrown31

Signal, Noise and Global Warming’s Influence on Weather

Human-caused climate change from increasing greenhouse gasses is expected to influence many weather phenomena including extreme events. However, there is not yet a detectable long-term change in many of these extreme events, as is recently emphasized by Roger Pielke Jr. in … Continue reading

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The leverage of the current moment on the long-term trajectory of the climate

Below is a talk I gave at the “Bay Area Regional Climate Emergency Town Hall” in Berkeley, CA on August 24th, 2018 titled “The leverage of the current moment on the long-term trajectory of the climate”.    

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Contemporary Global Warming placed in geological context

Below is a rough comparison of contemporary Global Warming and estimates of past temperature change. This is a visualization in the vein of this plot on Wikipedia. Uncertainties increase substantially as estimates go back further in time. Time resolution also … Continue reading

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Fundamental economics and the costs and benefits of addressing climate change

This post is a high-level summary of the central ideas underlying the evaluation of the economic costs and benefits of addressing climate change. One of the primary goals here is to explore, at a fundamental level, what is actually meant … Continue reading

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Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order to Narrow Uncertainty in Projected Global Warming

Below is a presentation I gave on our recent research published in Nature titled “Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget”. This was for the Stanford University Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Systems Colloquium (EE380). Thus, it is intended for … Continue reading

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Global temperature: 2018 likely to be colder than 2017, record high possible in 2019

We are working on a new statistical method for predicting interannual variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST). The method uses the preceding few years of globally gridded temperature anomalies and Partial Least Squares regression to predict the GMST of the following … Continue reading

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AGU Talk on potential changes in temperature variability with warming

Below is my talk from the 2017 AGU fall meeting. This talk is on a paper we published in Nature Climate Change about potential changes in natural unforced variability of global mean surface air temperature (GMST) under global warming. Background Unforced … Continue reading

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Greater future global warming (still) inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

We recently published a paper in Nature in which we leveraged observations of the Earth’s radiative energy budget to statistically constrain 21st-century climate model projections of global warming. We found that observations of the Earth’s energy budget allow us to infer … Continue reading

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Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

More-severe climate model predictions could be the most accurate. Continue reading

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Reducing greenhouse gas emissions helps the economy

Potential solutions to climate change are often framed as a tradeoff between reducing our impact on the environment and harming the economy. More specifically, it is thought that we can reduce our climate-change-related impact by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases … Continue reading

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