Author Archives: ptbrown31

Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order to Narrow Uncertainty in Projected Global Warming

Below is a presentation I gave on our recent research published in Nature titled “Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget”. This was for the Stanford University Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Systems Colloquium (EE380). Thus, it is intended for … Continue reading

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Global temperature: 2018 likely to be colder than 2017, record high possible in 2019

We are working on a new statistical method for predicting interannual variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST). The method uses the preceding few years of globally gridded temperature anomalies and Partial Least Squares regression to predict the GMST of the following … Continue reading

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AGU Talk on potential changes in temperature variability with warming

Below is my talk from the 2017 AGU fall meeting. This talk is on a paper we published in Nature Climate Change about potential changes in natural unforced variability of global mean surface air temperature (GMST) under global warming. Background Unforced … Continue reading

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Greater future global warming (still) inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

We recently published a paper in Nature in which we leveraged observations of the Earth’s radiative energy budget to statistically constrain 21st-century climate model projections of global warming. We found that observations of the Earth’s energy budget allow us to infer … Continue reading

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Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

More-severe climate model predictions could be the most accurate. Continue reading

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Reducing greenhouse gas emissions helps the economy

Potential solutions to climate change are often framed as a tradeoff between reducing our impact on the environment and harming the economy. More specifically, it is thought that we can reduce our climate-change-related impact by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases … Continue reading

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Math Models and Climate Change: S.T.E.M. Day talk at Quarry Lane School

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The effect of population growth on climate change impacts

Global human population is currently at approximately 7.5 billion people and increasing by about 1.1% per year. However, the rate of growth of the population growth rate itself is decreasing so world population is expected to level off somewhere near … Continue reading

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Can humanity maintain perpetual economic growth?

…to understand modern economic history, you really need to understand just a single word. The word is growth. –from Sapiens (2014) Humanity is far more materially wealthy today than any time in the past and our collective wealth continues to … Continue reading

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Change in temperature variability with warming

We have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change on potential changes in natural unforced variability of global mean surface air temperature (GMST) under global warming. Paper News and Views piece Duke press release Unforced GMST variability is of … Continue reading

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