Author Archives: ptbrown31

2016 Update to our ’empirical unforced noise’ analysis

This is an update to our 2015 Scientific Reports paper: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. The paper used a novel statistical estimate of unforced variability that was derived from reconstructed and instrumental surface … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Do ‘propagation of error’ calculations invalidate climate model projections of global warming?

My thoughts on claims made by Dr. Patrick Frank (SLAC) on the validity of climate model projections of global warming:  

Posted in Uncategorized | 41 Comments

2016 Global Temperature Update to Hansen’s 1981 Projection

It is always useful to check past predictions against eventual observations. Below is the NASA GISTEMP observed global temperature (updated through 2016) overlain on top of various projections of CO2-induced warming from calculations published in 1981 (Hansen et al. 1981). 2015 and … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

2016 update of modeled vs. observed global temperature

NASA released their 2016 global mean surface temperature data today. With this datapoint in, observations are now above the average climate model value for this point in time (using 1986-2005 as the baseline): This graphic uses the RCP 4.5 emissions … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Why do climate models disagree on the size of global temperature variability?

We have published a new paper titled “Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans“. Here is a brief summary: Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) is … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

Video Summary of my PhD Dissertation

 

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

What do historical temperature records tell us about natural variability in global temperature?

I have published an article, written for a general audience, summarizing the results of our 2015 Scientific Reports study.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Cloud feedback necessary for a basin-scale AMO

We have recently published a study in Geophysical Research Letters titled “The necessity of cloud feedback for a basin-scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation“. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) – a basin-scale coherent oscillation of sea surface temperatures over the North Atlantic – is … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The stability of unforced global temperature – In plain english

We have new published research that shows in detail why the earth’s temperature remains stable when it is not pushed by outside forcings. Below is a summary in plain english. For a more technical discussion see here. The study is all about what … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

The stability of unforced global temperature – Technical Discussion

We have new published research that has implications for why global mean surface air temperature (GMT) is stable in the absence of external radiative forcings. One of the central differences between weather prediction and climate projection is that the former is considered … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment