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- 2016 Update to our ’empirical unforced noise’ analysis
- Do ‘propagation of error’ calculations invalidate climate model projections of global warming?
- 2016 Global Temperature Update to Hansen’s 1981 Projection
- 2016 update of modeled vs. observed global temperature
- Why do climate models disagree on the size of global temperature variability?
Monthly Archives: January 2017
My thoughts on claims made by Dr. Patrick Frank (SLAC) on the validity of climate model projections of global warming:
It is always useful to check past predictions against eventual observations. Below is the NASA GISTEMP observed global temperature (updated through 2016) overlain on top of various projections of CO2-induced warming from calculations published in 1981 (Hansen et al. 1981). 2015 and … Continue reading
NASA released their 2016 global mean surface temperature data today. With this datapoint in, observations are now above the average climate model value for this point in time (using 1986-2005 as the baseline): This graphic uses the RCP 4.5 emissions … Continue reading