2016 update of modeled vs. observed global temperature

NASA released their 2016 global mean surface temperature data today. With this datapoint in, observations are now above the average climate model value for this point in time (using 1986-2005 as the baseline):


This graphic uses the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario for the models but the divergence between RCP 4.5 and steeper emissions scenarios is not appreciable until the mid-21st century (see e.g. Figure 1 here).

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4 Responses to 2016 update of modeled vs. observed global temperature

  1. David Appell says:

    Patrick, do the model results for the 20th century use the actual forcings that were observed?

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