This is an update to our 2015 Scientific Reports paper: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. The paper used a novel statistical estimate of unforced variability that was derived from reconstructed and instrumental surface temperature records. We used our statistical estimate of unforced variability to aid in our interpretation of recently observed temperature variability (more info here).

Our paper used global temperature data through 2013 since that was the most recent year in the major global temperature datasets at the time that the paper was submitted. Below I update Figures 2 and 3 from the paper, incorporating the data from 2014-2016.

Figure 2 updated through 2016.

Figure 3 updated through 2016.