Author Archives: ptbrown31

2016 Global Temperature Update to Hansen’s 1981 Projection

Posted on January 18, 2017 by ptbrown31

It is always useful to check past predictions against eventual observations. Below is the NASA GISTEMP observed global temperature (updated through 2016) overlain on top of various projections of CO2-induced warming from calculations published in 1981 (Hansen et al. 1981). 2015 and … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

2016 update of modeled vs. observed global temperature

Posted on January 18, 2017 by ptbrown31

NASA released their 2016 global mean surface temperature data today. With this datapoint in, observations are now above the average climate model value for this point in time (using 1986-2005 as the baseline): This graphic uses the RCP 4.5 emissions … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Why do climate models disagree on the size of global temperature variability?

Posted on December 5, 2016 by ptbrown31

We have published a new paper titled “Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans“. Here is a brief summary: Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) is … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate Change | 9 Comments

Video Summary of my PhD Dissertation

Posted on November 2, 2016 by ptbrown31

 

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

What do historical temperature records tell us about natural variability in global temperature?

Posted on August 30, 2016 by ptbrown31

I have published an article, written for a general audience, summarizing the results of our 2015 Scientific Reports study.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Cloud feedback necessary for a basin-scale AMO

Posted on April 11, 2016 by ptbrown31

We have recently published a study in Geophysical Research Letters titled “The necessity of cloud feedback for a basin-scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation“. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) – a basin-scale coherent oscillation of sea surface temperatures over the North Atlantic – is … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The stability of unforced global temperature – In plain english

Posted on February 5, 2016 by ptbrown31

We have new published research that shows in detail why the earth’s temperature remains stable when it is not pushed by outside forcings. Below is a summary in plain english. For a more technical discussion see here. The study is all about what … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

The stability of unforced global temperature – Technical Discussion

Posted on January 31, 2016 by ptbrown31

We have new published research that has implications for why global mean surface air temperature (GMT) is stable in the absence of external radiative forcings. One of the central differences between weather prediction and climate projection is that the former is considered … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate Change | 1 Comment

2015 Record Warmth: Update to Our Recent Analysis

Posted on January 25, 2016 by ptbrown31

This is an update to our 2015 Scientific Reports paper: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. The paper used a novel statistical estimate of unforced variability that was derived from reconstructed and instrumental surface … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

2015 Global Temperature vs. Models

Posted on January 20, 2016 by ptbrown31

2015 was the warmest year in the instrumental record (dating back to the mid/late 19th century) in all the major surface temperature datasets including NASA’s GISTEMP: However, 2015 still falls below the CMIP5 climate model mean value (left panel below). The … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment