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Author Archives: ptbrown31
Heat waves: How much can be blamed on global warming depends on how you ask the question.
The text below is an extended version of a peer-reviewed article that appeared in Physics Today: Brown, P. T. (2016) Reporting on global warming: A study in headlines, Physics Today, doi:10.1063/PT.3.3310 It is well established that human-caused increases in greenhouse … Continue reading
Posted in Climate Change
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AGU Poster: Unforced Surface Air Temperature Anomalies and their Opposite Relationship with the TOA Energy Imbalance at Local and Global Scales
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Response to Robert Tracinski’s article: “What It Would Take to Prove Global Warming”
Libertarian writer Robert Tracinski’s recently wrote an article called “What It Would Take to Prove Global Warming” in which he challenged mainstream climate science on a number of issues. I was asked by a few people to give my thoughts … Continue reading
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Climate Model Primer
1) What is a climate model? In order to correctly interpret climate model output it is important to first understand what a computer climate model is. Climate models are software that simulate the whole earth system by using our knowledge … Continue reading
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Global Warming and unforced variability: Clarifications on our recent study
This post appeared at Real Climate We recently published a study in Scientific Reports titled “Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise”. Our study seemed to generated a lot of interest and we … Continue reading
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Research highlighted in the media
Our Paper, “Regions of significant influence on unforced global mean surface air temperature variability in climate models” has been highlighted by a number of media outlets: sciencedaily carbonbrief scienceworldreport duke reportingclimatescience phys spacedaily green-energy-news rdmag astrobiologymagazie climatewire Neue Zuercher Zeitung (Swiss … Continue reading
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Top-of-atmosphere contribution to unforced variability in global temperature
(The following was originally posted at Climate Lab Book) As the attention received by the ‘global warming hiatus’ demonstrates, global mean surface temperature (T) variability on decadal timescales is of great interest to both the general public and to scientists. … Continue reading
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Making a case vs. analyzing data in the climate change debate
Nate Silver recently re-launched a greatly expanded version of his fivethirtyeight blog to much fanfare. The site’s goal is to tackle a variety of questions with hard data analysis in an effort to elucidate truths that are often obscured by … Continue reading
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Probabilities of various records for the 2013 Wisconsin Badgers
UPDATE 12/1/2013: Wisconsin finished the regular season at 9-3 (the most likely outcome according to the original prediction). They lost the two games that they were probabilistic underdogs in and they dropped another game that they were probabilistic favorites in (as was … Continue reading
Unforced Variability and the Global Warming Slow Down
Introduction Some have claimed that despite a continual increase in global atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the global average temperature has not increased in 16 years. This logic is used to advocate the idea that increases in greenhouse gasses do not cause … Continue reading
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Patrick T. Brown, PhD 